In Nigerian history, critical moments have often been decided not just by policy, military strength, or public support, but also by individuals and groups shifting loyalty at the last minute. These moments, whether during military interventions or democratic contests, have had lasting effects on leadership outcomes, political power, and the nation’s direction.
Loyalty and the Collapse of the First Republic
During Nigeria’s First Republic, political instability was rampant. Coalitions were fragile, and regional and personal rivalries often determined the survival of governments. Shifts in allegiance among key politicians weakened civilian authority and made governance precarious. These changes in loyalty created conditions that allowed the military to intervene in 1966.
EXPLORE NOW: Military Era & Coups in Nigeria
The Role of Loyalty in Military Coups
Under military rule, loyalty among officers was crucial. Success or failure of coups depended not only on strategy and force but also on whether commanders and soldiers chose to remain loyal, resist, or switch sides. Historical records show that such decisions were decisive in determining which factions prevailed during the coups of 1966, 1975, and 1985. Loyalty significantly influenced who assumed control.
Shifts in the Democratic Era
With the return to civilian rule in 1999, loyalty changes moved from military barracks to party politics. Political parties lacked strong ideological foundations, making defections frequent. The most notable example occurred in the lead-up to the 2015 general elections. Prominent figures left the ruling Peoples Democratic Party to join the opposition All Progressives Congress. These moves strengthened the opposition and helped reshape national political dynamics, ultimately leading to the historic election of Muhammadu Buhari, the first defeat of an incumbent president in Nigeria’s democratic history.
Impact on Legislative Power
Loyalty shifts have also altered legislative outcomes at both federal and state levels. Lawmakers switching parties have sometimes changed the majority balance in assemblies, influencing policy priorities and leadership structures. Such shifts have been a recurring feature of Nigerian politics since 1999, demonstrating how the movement of a few key individuals can have wide-ranging consequences.
EXPLORE: Nigerian Civil War
Public Perception and Political Culture
These loyalty shifts have shaped public perception of governance in Nigeria. While some view defections as pragmatic, others see them as undermining electoral promises. Over time, repeated shifts have contributed to voter awareness of the personalised nature of politics, where allegiance often follows access to power rather than policy principles. Despite this, such shifts have also created opportunities for new political coalitions to challenge established dominance.
Across both military and democratic periods, last-minute shifts in loyalty have repeatedly redirected the course of Nigerian history. From the collapse of early civilian governments to the reshaping of modern party politics, the decisions of individuals and groups at crucial moments have left lasting impacts on the nation’s leadership, governance, and democratic trajectory.
Author’s Note
In Nigeria, history is often shaped by loyalty at critical moments. Whether during coups or elections, last-minute shifts have determined leadership, altered party dynamics, and influenced governance. Political outcomes are not always decided by policy alone but by the choices of individuals at pivotal moments. These loyalty changes reveal the personal and strategic factors that continue to define Nigeria’s political journey.
References
Toyin Falola, The History of Nigeria, Greenwood Press.
Richard Joseph, Democracy and Prebendal Politics in Nigeria, Cambridge University Press.
Larry Diamond, Class, Ethnicity and Democracy in Nigeria, Syracuse University Press.
