The Nigeria North-South political divide cannot be explained by a single census, election or colonial decision. Its roots lie in the political structure created under British rule, the development of powerful regional governments and the constitutional struggle over how representation at the federal centre should be shared.
Population eventually became central to that struggle because numbers had consequences. The size of a region could influence its representation in parliament and, later, contribute to decisions about the distribution of federal resources. A census was therefore never merely a technical exercise in counting people. In Nigeria’s highly competitive federation, it could alter perceptions of who constituted a majority and who possessed the greater claim to political influence.
That history still matters. Nigeria’s most recent completed national population and housing census was conducted from 21 to 27 March 2006. The final population figure was 140,431,790. Two decades later, the country is still preparing for another national count.
The delay has returned an old question to public debate: why has population remained so politically sensitive in Nigeria?
Colonial Rule and the Rise of Regional Politics
The political divide between Northern and Southern Nigeria existed before the famous census disputes of the 1960s.
British colonial rule brought together territories containing very different political institutions, economic systems, religions, languages and histories. The amalgamation of Northern and Southern Nigeria in 1914 created a single administrative entity, but important institutional distinctions between North and South survived.
Later constitutional development strengthened regional politics. By the closing years of colonial rule, Nigeria was increasingly organised around three major political regions: Northern, Western and Eastern. Lagos retained a separate constitutional position, while the Mid-Western Region was created from the Western Region in 1963.
Regional political parties became powerful vehicles for competition at the federal centre. The Northern People’s Congress was dominant in much of the Northern Region. The Action Group was strongest in the Western Region, while the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons, later renamed the National Convention of Nigerian Citizens, commanded substantial support in the Eastern Region and elsewhere.
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Population did not create this regional system. It became one of the instruments through which the system distributed power.
A decisive example came with the Macpherson Constitution of 1951.
The federal House of Representatives contained 136 elected representatives. Of these, the Northern Region received 68 seats, while the Eastern and Western regions received 34 each.
The arrangement gave the North half of the elected regional representation in the House before the 1952 to 1953 population census had been completed.
The political principle that the North should possess representation equal to the combined East and West was therefore already embedded in constitutional bargaining. The later census did not create Northern political weight. It strengthened the demographic argument behind it.
The 1952 to 1953 Census and Northern Numerical Strength
The colonial census conducted between 1952 and 1953 was the first broadly modern nationwide population exercise in Nigeria, although enumeration was not conducted everywhere at the same time.
Northern Nigeria was counted between May and July 1952. Enumeration in Western Nigeria and Lagos followed later in 1952 and early 1953, while the Eastern Region was counted in 1953.
This staggered process created difficulties in making exact comparisons.
The regional statistical series commonly used for the period gives a population of roughly 30.4 million for the territories covered by the principal regional totals. About 16.84 million were recorded in the Northern Region, approximately 7.22 million in the East, about 6.09 million in the West and roughly 272,000 in Lagos.
Those figures excluded Southern Cameroons and certain trust territories. Contemporary statistical presentations using a broader territorial basis produced a total of about 31.17 million.
Whichever territorial basis is used, the central political result was the same: the Northern Region was recorded as containing an absolute majority of the population used for Nigeria’s principal regional political calculations.
The census therefore supplied demographic support for a political arrangement that constitutional negotiations had already established.
How 174 Seats Gave Population Parliamentary Weight
The connection between population and political power became even clearer before independence.
For the 1959 federal election, Nigeria was divided into 312 House of Representatives constituencies. The Northern Region received 174 seats, the Eastern Region 73, the Western Region 62 and Lagos three.
The North therefore possessed more seats than the other three areas combined.
This mattered because Nigeria was moving towards independence under a parliamentary system. A region’s population could influence the number of constituencies allocated to it, and constituency numbers could influence the formation of a federal government.
Yet Northern numerical predominance did not mean that every northerner supported the same party or that one party automatically controlled Nigeria.
The Northern People’s Congress faced opposition within the North, including from the Northern Elements Progressive Union and other political forces. At the federal level, alliances remained essential. After the 1959 election, the Northern People’s Congress formed a coalition with the NCNC, and Abubakar Tafawa Balewa continued as prime minister.
The political system was heavily regionalised, but it was never as simple as one united North confronting one united South.
The 1962 Census and the Threat to the Existing Balance
After independence on 1 October 1960, Nigeria attempted another national census in May 1962.
The exercise became one of the most controversial statistical operations in the country’s history.
Preliminary figures indicated a total population of approximately 45.26 million, with about 22.01 million in the Northern Region and a combined total of about 23.25 million elsewhere.
The figures implied that the North might no longer contain an absolute majority of Nigeria’s population.
The political consequences were immediate.
If future constituency distribution continued to reflect population, a demographic majority outside the North could eventually change the arithmetic of the federal parliament.
The census was attacked amid allegations of inflated returns. Northern political leaders rejected the preliminary result, while southern leaders were generally more favourably disposed towards figures that appeared to reduce Northern demographic predominance.
Prime Minister Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, after consultation with the regional premiers, cancelled the results.
A new census was ordered for the following year.
The 1963 Census Crisis
The replacement census was conducted from 5 to 8 November 1963 under tighter arrangements.
The figures subsequently accepted by the Federal Government put Nigeria’s population at 55,653,821.
The Northern Region was allocated 29,777,986 people. The Eastern Region received 12,388,646, the Western Region 10,278,500, the newly created Mid-Western Region 2,533,337, and Lagos 675,352.
The North had once again been recorded as possessing an absolute majority.
The political reaction was immediate.
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Eastern Premier Michael Okpara became one of the most prominent critics of the exercise. He questioned enumeration rates, statistical testing and the credibility of returns from parts of the Northern Region.
Northern Premier Sir Ahmadu Bello, the Sardauna of Sokoto, rejected accusations directed at the North and responded with allegations concerning census practices elsewhere.
Statistical problems were identified in several regions. Significant proportions of census districts in the Western, Mid-Western and Northern regions failed one or more statistical checks.
The severity of the problems was particularly pronounced among many of the Northern districts that failed the tests. Among Northern districts that did not pass all the tests examined, a notably high proportion failed every test.
The dispute was therefore more complicated than a simple claim that one region counted honestly while another fabricated its population. Irregularities and political incentives existed across the federation, while serious questions remained over significant sections of the Northern returns.
The controversy became one of the defining political disputes of the First Republic.
The Eastern Region Takes the Census Dispute to Court
The Eastern Nigerian government took the dispute to the Supreme Court.
In Attorney-General, Eastern Nigeria v. Attorney-General of the Federation, the Eastern government sought declarations preventing the Federal Government from accepting or acting upon the 1963 figures.
Its complaints included allegations of irregularities, bad faith and defects in the way the census had been conducted and accepted.
The case was dismissed in June 1964.
The proceedings centred substantially on jurisdiction and whether the dispute involved the kind of legal right necessary to invoke the Supreme Court’s original jurisdiction between the Federation and a Region.
The Federal Government continued to use the 1963 census figures.
The political controversy, however, did not disappear.
Why the 1963 Census Remained Controversial
The 1963 census occupied an unusual position in Nigerian history.
It was officially accepted and used by the state, but its demographic credibility remained contested.
The enormous apparent increase between the 1952 to 1953 figures and those of 1963 attracted criticism from demographers, politicians and journalists.
Nigeria’s official population had increased from roughly 30 million in the early 1950s to more than 55 million a decade later. Such an increase was difficult to reconcile solely with natural population growth.
The accepted figures nevertheless became administratively and politically significant because the Federal Government adopted them.
The controversy surrounding them deepened regional distrust and reinforced the belief that population figures could determine political fortunes.
Cattle, Cartoons and the Politics of Census Propaganda
One of the most enduring stories surrounding the 1963 census was the accusation that cattle had been counted as human beings in Northern Nigeria.
The allegation became part of the political culture of the census dispute. Contemporary cartoons used cattle to ridicule the Northern population total, particularly in southern newspapers.
Political satire became a weapon in the regional struggle.
Cattle imagery reflected the depth of southern suspicion towards the census figures rather than an established method of census enumeration.
The episode is nevertheless historically significant because it shows how deeply distrust had entered Nigerian political culture. Census criticism was no longer confined to arguments among statisticians and government officials. It became part of regional propaganda, ethnic stereotyping and popular political humour.
The 1973 Census and Another National Dispute
Nigeria tried again between 25 November and 2 December 1973, during the military government of General Yakubu Gowon.
The exercise introduced improvements in census preparation, including more systematic enumeration area demarcation.
A provisional population figure of 79.76 million was announced.
The result immediately became controversial. States and political interests were accused of organised inflation, while questions were raised about political interference and the administration of the exercise.
The complete results were not adopted and published as an accepted national census.
After the change of government in 1975, the exercise was cancelled and the Census Board dissolved.
Nigeria would wait until 1991 for another census whose results received official acceptance.
The 1991 and 2006 Censuses
The 1991 census produced a population of approximately 88.5 million.
Fifteen years later, Nigeria conducted another national population and housing census from 21 to 27 March 2006.
The final total was 140,431,790.
The 2006 census incorporated technologies unavailable to earlier generations of Nigerian census officials. These included satellite imagery, Global Positioning System technology, machine-readable forms and fingerprint systems intended to help identify possible multiple enumeration.
Yet political sensitivity remained.
Questions on ethnicity and religion were omitted, reflecting continuing fears that demographic information could intensify competition among Nigeria’s communities.
Technology could improve enumeration. It could not eliminate the politics attached to the resulting numbers.
Population and Political Power in Modern Nigeria
Modern Nigeria no longer links population to political representation in precisely the same manner as the First Republic.
The Senate illustrates the difference.
Each of Nigeria’s 36 states elects three senators regardless of population, while the Federal Capital Territory elects one. Kano, Lagos and Rivers therefore receive the same number of senators as states with much smaller populations.
The House of Representatives follows another principle. It contains 360 federal constituencies, and constitutional provisions require constituency populations to be as nearly equal as reasonably practicable, subject to state boundaries and other requirements.
Population also remains relevant to fiscal federalism.
The Constitution recognises population and population density among the principles that may be considered in revenue allocation, alongside factors such as equality of states, internal revenue generation, land mass and terrain. The derivation principle separately protects a share of natural-resource revenue for producing areas.
Modern federalism therefore mixes population with territorial equality and other considerations.
Nigeria has never fully resolved the tension between representing people and protecting constituent territories.
Nigeria’s Next Census and the Return of an Old Question
The country has now gone two decades without another completed national census after 2006.
Preparations for a new exercise have included digital enumeration plans, nationwide enumeration area demarcation and proposals for biometric identification.
In April 2025, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu inaugurated a high-level committee to examine the timetable, financing and practical requirements for the proposed census. Officials disclosed that a digital and biometric census proposal carried an estimated budget of about ₦949 billion.
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The United Nations international census schedule listed Nigeria under 2026, but the final Nigerian census date remained subject to presidential proclamation.
By early September 2026, no confirmed enumeration date had been publicly proclaimed by the President. The National Population Commission had continued to state that the authority to determine the census date rested with the President.
The Commission also experienced an unexpected leadership change. Dr Aminu Yusuf, who became chairman of the National Population Commission in December 2025, died on 28 August 2026, aged 66.
Whenever the next census takes place, it will inherit the political memory of every disputed count that came before it.
Conclusion
Nigeria’s long struggle over population demonstrates how an apparently technical question can become a constitutional and political issue.
The census did not create the North-South divide. Colonial administrative structures, regional political development and constitutional bargaining had already established powerful regional interests before the major population disputes began.
What the census did was give numbers extraordinary political significance.
The Macpherson arrangements established Northern parliamentary weight before the 1952 to 1953 census was completed. The colonial census then supplied demographic justification for Northern numerical predominance. The 1959 constituency allocation translated that predominance into parliamentary seats.
The disputed exercises of 1962 and 1963 revealed the danger in the system. Once political representation was connected to population, disagreement about the number of people living in a region became disagreement about the distribution of political power.
The controversy survived military rule. The 1973 census was cancelled. The 1991 and 2006 exercises restored official population counts, but distrust surrounding demographic statistics never disappeared completely.
Nigeria today possesses a more complex federal structure than the First Republic. Population does not determine Senate representation, and it is only one factor among several in fiscal allocation. Nevertheless, demographic figures still matter for constituency planning, public services, infrastructure, education, healthcare and the distribution of national resources.
The country therefore needs reliable population figures more urgently than ever.
The challenge is not simply to count Nigerians. It is to build institutions capable of producing figures that citizens across the federation can accept even when those numbers challenge long-standing regional assumptions.
Until that happens, population in Nigeria will remain more than a statistic.
It will remain closely connected to resources, representation and political power.
Author’s Note
Nigeria’s census history offers a larger lesson about federalism: population figures become politically explosive when communities believe that numerical advantage determines access to power and national resources. The North-South rivalry was already embedded in colonial regional structures before the great census disputes began, but population gave that rivalry measurable political consequences. From the parliamentary struggles of the 1950s to the census confrontations of the First Republic and the continuing debate over a new national count, Nigeria has repeatedly confronted the challenge of balancing demographic representation with regional equality. A successful future census will therefore matter not only because the country needs reliable population data, but because public confidence in those numbers will help determine how Nigerians understand their place within the federation.
References
Gerardo Serra and Morten Jerven, “Contested Numbers: Census Controversies and the Press in 1960s Nigeria,” The Journal of African History, Vol. 62, No. 2, Cambridge University Press, 2021.
Nigeria Department of Statistics, Population Census of Nigeria, 1952–53, Lagos, 1953.
Federal Republic of Nigeria, Population Census of Nigeria 1963, Volume III: Combined National Figures.
National Population Commission, Nigeria, History of Population Census in Nigeria and institutional records relating to the 1952 to 1953, 1962, 1963, 1973, 1991 and 2006 censuses.
Attorney-General, Eastern Nigeria v. Attorney-General of the Federation, Supreme Court of Nigeria, 1964.
Senate Committee on Constitution Review, Federal Republic of Nigeria, constitutional history of the Macpherson Constitution of 1951.
National Bureau of Statistics, Annual Abstract of Statistics 2011, population tables based on National Population Commission data.
Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999, as amended, provisions governing the Senate, House of Representatives, federal constituencies and revenue allocation.
Independent National Electoral Commission, official materials on National Assembly representation and Nigeria’s federal constituencies.
National Population Commission, official records concerning preparations for Nigeria’s next Population and Housing Census, digital enumeration, biometric proposals and the Presidential Committee on the census.
United Nations Statistics Division, World Population and Housing Census Programme, international census schedule.
The State House, Abuja, statement on the death of National Population Commission Chairman Dr Aminu Yusuf, 29 August 2026.
