Nigeria’s first population exercises after independence were not mere technical operations; they were profound tests of federal legitimacy. The mid-1960s census saga, a cancelled 1962 enumeration followed by a disputed 1963 re-run, revealed how counting people became inseparable from counting political power.
What should have been a routine administrative task evolved into a nationwide controversy that reflected and deepened regional rivalries. Representation, resource allocation, and regional influence all hinged on demographic figures, making population data a politically charged matter.
Drawing from verified government archives, press accounts, and scholarly studies, this article reconstructs what is firmly established and distinguishes documented historical fact from later political speculation.
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What Is Firmly Established
- A national census was initiated in 1962, but preliminary results were withdrawn after intense regional dispute.
- A second enumeration was conducted in 1963, and the official results were published in 1964, reporting a total population of about 65 million.
- The 1963 regional distributionrecorded:
- Northern Region:≈ 29.78 million
- Eastern Region:≈ 12.39 million
- Western Region:≈ 10.28 million
- Mid-West Region:≈ 2.53 million
- Lagos:≈ 0.675 million
- The 1962–63 censuses generated sustained controversy, parliamentary tension, and extensive press debate.
Colonial Precedents and Why Enumeration Mattered
Population counting in Nigeria had a long colonial lineage. British administrators conducted partial and uneven headcounts to serve taxation, labour, and security purposes. Methodologies varied across regions, and coverage was far from complete.
By independence in 1960, population figures had acquired new political weight. Under the 1954 federal constitution, both representation in the House of Representatives and allocation of statutory revenue depended directly on population. In this context, a credible post-independence census was essential, not merely for planning, but for maintaining political balance and legitimacy.
The 1962 Attempt and Its Cancellation
The first post-independence census took place in May 1962. It was intended to provide the demographic foundation for a young nation’s planning and representation. But when preliminary figures emerged, they ignited instant controversy.
Early tallies suggested rapid population growth in the South, narrowing the demographic advantage long held by the North. Southern newspapers hailed the results as a sign of progress, while Northern leaders and media outlets denounced them as inflated and politically motivated.
Amid escalating accusations, parliamentary debates turned acrimonious. Under mounting political pressure, the federal government withdrew the 1962 results and ordered a complete re-enumeration.
Official communiqués and administrative reports confirm this cancellation, a major embarrassment for the new federation and a clear sign of its institutional fragility.
The 1963 Census and the Published Totals
Determined to restore credibility, the government reorganized the census operation under tighter supervision in 1963. Enumeration officers were retrained, supervision was strengthened, and political observers were allowed limited oversight to reduce regional suspicion.
The count took place late in 1963, and the official results were released in February 1964. Nigeria’s population was recorded as 55,653,821. The Northern Region’s 29.78 million confirmed its numerical majority, while the combined southern regions and Lagos accounted for roughly 25.87 million.
Despite renewed protests, the federal government adopted these figures as official and binding. They became the demographic basis for electoral seat allocation, resource distribution, and development planning throughout the First Republic.
Archival microfilms of the 1963 Census Reports at the Center for Research Libraries preserve the detailed tables and confirm their use in later policy documents.
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Methodological Concerns and Contested Credibility
Even before publication, demographers expressed doubts about the accuracy of the new enumeration. The regional growth rates appeared inconsistent with previous trends, and some urban–rural ratios defied demographic expectations.
Newspapers and politicians quickly seized on the anomalies.
- Northern commentatorsdefended the legitimacy of their region’s figures as statistically plausible and demographically consistent.
- Southern politiciansaccused the census administration of bias, alleging inflated counts in Northern provinces.
The debate moved from statistical journals to the national press, where it was reframed as a contest over regional dominance rather than technical accuracy.
Serra and Jerven’s 2021 study in The Journal of African History shows how this politicisation of data turned demographic discussion into a proxy war over legitimacy and power. What began as a question of enumeration became a symbolic struggle over Nigeria’s national balance.
Political Consequences, Connected, Not Causal
The census controversy deepened pre-existing mistrust among regional leaders. It influenced parliamentary seat allocations, fiscal negotiations, and public confidence in federal governance. However, historians now caution against oversimplifying its impact.
While the dispute aggravated political tension, it was one factor among many, alongside disputed regional elections, economic inequality, and military dissatisfaction, that eroded the First Republic’s stability before the January 1966 coup.
Modern scholarship thus treats the census as a symptom of Nigeria’s structural divisions, not the singular cause of the Republic’s collapse.
Legal and Administrative Aftermath
The census crisis spilled into administrative and judicial arenas. Several petitions questioned the legality and fairness of the published results. Courts, however, generally refused to intervene, citing the executive’s constitutional authority over census administration.
Despite unresolved controversies, the Federal Government formally adopted the 1963 figures for all official purposes, including the 1964 House of Representatives seat distribution.
The episode exposed the absence of a statistically autonomous institution and left the bureaucracy struggling to recover public trust.
Aftermath and Long-Term Lessons
The 1963 figures remained the national baseline through the civil war (1967–70) and into the 1970s. The next census, conducted in 1973, was later annulled due to irregularities, a sign that earlier institutional weaknesses persisted.
Subsequent exercises in 1991 and 2006 continued to face political skepticism, confirming that census credibility in Nigeria remained a sensitive issue.
Historians and demographers agree that technical precision alone cannot guarantee trust in deeply divided societies. Credible enumeration requires institutional independence, transparency, and broad civic engagement.
The 1962–63 experience stands as a cautionary tale: when population figures are politicized, even numbers can become instruments of power.
The 1962–63 census controversy remains one of the most instructive episodes in Nigeria’s early post-independence history. The cancellation of the 1962 enumeration, the publication of the disputed 1963 results, and the ensuing political battles all revealed how fragile state institutions were under the weight of regional rivalry.
The episode’s significance lies not in proving manipulation but in exposing the dangers of weak governance and politicized data. For a nation seeking unity in diversity, the census became a mirror of mistrust.
Author’s Note
Rebuilding public confidence in Nigeria’s statistical system remains vital today. Technical rigour, institutional autonomy, and open verification are still the best safeguards to ensure that censuses measure population, not political power.
References:
Federal Census Office. Population Census of Nigeria, 1963 (Official Report; archived microfilm). Center for Research Libraries / IHSN Catalogue.
National Population Commission (Nigeria). “History of Population Census in Nigeria.”
Serra, G. & Jerven, M. “Contested Numbers: Census Controversies and the Press in 1960s Nigeria.” The Journal of African History, Cambridge University Press, 2021.
Falola, Toyin & Heaton, Matthew. A History of Nigeria. Cambridge University Press, 2008.
Osuntokun, Jide. Nigeria’s First Republic: The Politics of an Emergent Nation. Ibadan University Press, 1987.
Daily Times & West African Pilot Archives (1962–1964). Press debates on census disputes.
